Gazing into the future

Time to play the game of prediction again.

If you could pocket $1 million for picking the World Champion as we head into the Professional Bull Riders World Finals, who would rank No. 1?

At the beginning of the year, I was betting the ranch on Kody Lostroh. But if I had to make a prediction today, it would be Guilherme Marchi.

Though the defending World Champion has been on cruise control for most of the year, Marchi enters the World Finals, which are scheduled for Oct. 30-Nov. 2 and Nov. 5-8 in Las Vegas, only 294.5 points off of the lead. The Brazilian ranks second in the Built Ford Tough Series standings behind Lostroh, who has 11,941 points.

Now, all Marchi has to do is become really, really aggressive for a couple of weekends and he's the first cowboy snare back-to-back PBR world titles.

The problem with Lostroh is he just hasn't really been running full throttle during the past month. He just keeps hitting the ground in a way that aggravates his left shoulder, which he uses to hold on.

The elbow injury that Lostroh worked around so well earlier this season also is questionable. In late April, the Colorado cowboy tore a tendon on the outside of his left elbow at the BFTS tour stop at Omaha, Neb. In spite of the depressing news, Lostroh began wearing an arm brace and managed to make the short rounds at May tour stops in Des Moines, Iowa, and Pueblo, Colo.

Then he had almost two months to heal. And he made a dramatic return by winning the mid-July tour stop in Tulsa, Okla., and since has been a frontrunner.

But can Lostroh continue to hang on to the lead as he faces seven or more of the world's rankest bulls in a 10-day span at the World Finals? Can he hold up and score in the 90s in the short go when he's running neck-and-neck with Marchi and J.B. Mauney?

I'm just not convinced that Lostroh is quite healthy enough to make that final push.

With a weekend off, he possibly can pull himself together enough to secure the world title. But at the rate he's been going in recent weeks, his chances of winning the world don't look so good.

If Lostroh proves me wrong, it would be a great testimony of exercising his Christian faith and riding with lots of perseverance. I wouldn't mind being wrong on this one because I've said in two previous blogs that he's the 2009 gold buckle winner. However, I also have said the only things that would hold him back are health issues, and that's my big concern with Lostroh.

Of the three world title contenders – Lostroh, Marchi, and Mauney - Marchi is the superior rider. Marchi's setback earlier in the season was being in a regrouping period. He burned so much energy last year to win the world and it's taken awhile to get pumped and become really aggressive again.

In a July 11 blog, I said this about Marchi: "Although Marchi wants to repeat, he's had his riding in cruise control too often after pulling out all of the stops to win the world title last year, when he'd been denied the gold buckle for the three previous seasons. I'd welcome Marchi to prove me wrong, and there's a deep-down feeling that he might just do that. But in order to become the 2009 World Champion, he must make a big move."

In recent weeks, we've seen him began to shift out of cruise control, make his moves and become more his championship self again. He began on the weekend of Sept. 19-20 when he snared the title at the BFTS tour stop in Springfield, Mo. He since has moved within very close striking distance of Lostroh and is looking at Mauney in the rearview mirror.

What about Mauney?

The North Carolina star ranks third in the world and he's 785 points out of first place. He's another cowboy who can overtake Lostroh, but he won't quite catch up with Marchi.

So far, Mauney has yet to prove that he's consistent enough to win it all. But one thing he has going for him is he's never won a world title and that could be his biggest asset in Vegas.

Another thing working in Mauney's favor lately is he's more focused on Ford Series. Earlier during the year, he was diverting some of his energy to making 90-point rides at PRCA rodeos, hoping that he can slip around to enough of them to qualify for the December National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas.

That's really difficult to pull off in this day, because many of the Ford Series shows have conflicting dates with the higher paying PRCA rodeos such as Fort Worth, San Antonio and Houston. And when you can't work the finals of those bigger rodeos, it's really hard to win enough cash to advance to the NFR.

But Mauney seems to have realized all that and has become more focused on putting his energy into the Ford Series and its coveted $1 million prize that will be awarded to the World Champion.

And even with some of the events he competed in that were non-Ford Series shows, he's worked them to his advantage. Two examples: he won the July Calgary Stampede, earning more than $100,000, and he was the top producer for the United States team at the August World Cup in Barretos, Brazil, helping the U.S. clinch the team title.

Those two wins seemed to help give Mauney a mental edge going into the final stretch of the Ford Series and he's ridden very well. He could win it all. If he does, he'll be a very colorful World Champion and a great story line.

And speaking of story lines ... Whoever wins the world this year will have a great tale to tell. If Lostroh can somehow fend off Marchi and Mauney, it will be one great account of persevering through nagging elbow and shoulder injuries. If Marchi wins the gold buckle, he'll make history as the first back-to-back World Champion. If Mauney wins, the PBR's marketing department will have one charismatic cowboy.

But between the three, I'll have to give Marchi the edge. With all that in mind, who's your pick for the gold buckle? Who's the runner-up? And who will take the bronze?

Can Lostroh go to the 2009 winner's circle after being ranked No. 1 for most of the season? Will Mauney become more consistent and win his first gold buckle? And will Marchi become the first rider to win back-to-back buckles?

What do you think? Where am I right? Where am I wrong?