The morning line: Glendale, Round 2
Keep an eye on Nunes
GLENDALE, Ariz. (March 14, 2010) - I thought last night’s Round 1 in Glendale was set up pretty well for Renato Nunes to win, but reigning World Champion Kody Lostroh edged him out on a relatively unknown bull.
Tonight, Nunes possibly has an even bigger advantage in the draw, and is poised to be very high on two bulls going into the short round. Several other guys who made the whistle last night also drew well today.
Round 2 Matchups:
Renato Nunes on D26 Stubby:
Stubby is a bull who should go into Renato’s hand, and the last two times he was ridden it was for 88 and 89.25 points. More importantly, he’s one of the highest marked bulls available in this round. If he’s ridden, it will be tough to beat.
Robson Aragao on Larry the Cable Guy’s Smokey:
Aragao is a guy who campaigns pretty hard in the Touring Pro Division, but isn’t often seen on the Built Ford Tough Series level. He’s fallen into a gold mine here, though, because Smokey is a money bull. He’s ridden nearly 70 percent of the time, and for high scores. Aragao came down last night, but he could redeem himself today with a round win and a big paycheck.
Jordan Hupp on 204B Savage Shaker:
Last night, Jordan Hupp came down in 6.4 seconds, and that was noteworthy, because it’s the first time he’s bucked off on the Built Ford Tough Series since last November, when Chicken on a Chain got the best of him. Hupp has been riding like a machine: four straight rides in Oklahoma City, and four more in Kansas City. He’s actually ridden 13 out of 17 in 2010 at all levels. Those are numbers that should make him a serious threat to win a World Championship. He’s matched up with a bull who is a proven veteran, and by the numbers, Jordan Hupp should be a lock to place very high today.
Ned Cross on 6 Backyard Big Rig:
Cross got a score last night and should be set to get another today. Very good bull.
Guilherme Marchi on 666 Relentless Warrior:
Pop Quiz: What are the odds that Relentless Warrior will achieve his first career buckoff against Guilherme Marchi? He’s been out six times and ridden six times. I don’t think Marchi will come down.
Kody Lostroh on W55 Real Moody:
This is a bull who is seldom ridden, and Dustin Elliott was only 84.5 on him in Anaheim. He does have a number of impressive bull scores, and if Kody can get to the whistle, he could contend for a round win here, but the odds are against him.
Wiley Petersen on 522 Legacy:
Petersen rode last night, and has a very favorable matchup here. This bull may not be enough to place high on, but with two scores, Petersen could be looking good going into the short round.
Austin Meier on H50 Hank:
After coming down last night, Meier needs a huge score today to qualify for the short round. I don’t think he will get it from Hank. He rode this bull in St. Louis for 82.5 points.
J.B. Mauney on 513 Class 6 Kat:
Mauney bucked off Kat in Anaheim, but he took him 7.5 seconds. Odds are he will get it done today.
Beau Hill on 305 Rewind:
Rewind is a statistically odd bull. He’s good enough to win on, but is basically never ridden by left-handers, and almost always ridden by right-handers. If Hill can buck the trend here, he could get paid. He needs a big score, and Rewind can get him there.
Ben Jones on 308 Kick Butt:
Another bull that right-handers seem to get along with better, and Jones rides right-handed. He should be able to get a score.
L.J. Jenkins on -421 Holy Smoke:
Jenkins took this bull 7.7 seconds in their only meeting back in 2008. Should be a qualified ride, and a pretty good score – in the 85-87 point neighborhood.
Dustin Elliott on 41C Crush Boss III:
Elliott was third last night, and has a bull here he should be able to ride.
-by Slade Long
(Slade Long, PBR Web Developer and Statistician, has been crunching the numbers on bucking bulls for 11 years.)
-
Commonn sense seems to elude many, including the person picking the riders for the Brazil World Cup team. But, I guess since they are someone's favorite, they get a p!@#.
-
Joan Simpson
March 15, 2010I don't think Slade should have to explain why he writes about any rider especially JB. He knows that JB is on top of the PBR standings and like he said "is almost twice as good as some of he guys at any event". Anyone with common sense would realize that. -
Atl-Falcon
March 14, 2010KRC-
While I understand that Adriano's interview couldn't be done during next week's preview, I highly doubt it had to be done during that exact flight of bull-riding. From what I understand, many events are on a time delay - so the excuse that this particular flight was the ONLY time to do the interview seems like a lot of bull. I'm curious, if Kody or JB were in this flight, would the interview still have gone off at that time. I doubt it! -
Shannon K
March 14, 2010KRC: Gosh, I wasn't trying to be snarky and hope I didn't come across that way. My "certain air of power" was in reference to the fact that McKee's joking that the producers don't usually instantly gratify his wish on air like they did in calling Adriano. In any event, I guess you're right that a *live* interview with Adriano couldn't happen during the preview show next week...but I still think there are alternatives to taking up an entire flight of rides to do it. -
Keith Ryan Cartwright
March 14, 2010The interview couldn't be done next week during the preview show because Adriano will be traveling to Brazil at that time. So, yes, imagine that, there's always a reason... -
Shannon K
March 14, 2010A big ol' thanks to webpbr for helping make peace and to Slade for taking the time to explain his reasoning. I do think "World Cup or Glendale" has a point, though. The interview with Adriano could easily have been done during intermission or during the World Cup preview show next week rather than in the middle of a flight...though I suppose doing it this way did lend Justin McKee a certain air of power :). -
webpbr
March 14, 2010Slade - Thank you for the explanation. Through all this turmoil, came something good. Which is hearing from you and why you write what you write.
justme - If years at a job was the main criteria for never questioning someone, we would not have had the financial, mortgage, and company meltdowns that we did. -
slade
March 14, 2010I just try to pick matchups that either involve the World Standings leaders, or the standout bulls in a round, or both.
In round 1, there weren't a lot of real peachy matchups statistically, but the big thing that stood out was that this event was a chance for JB to stretch his lead because #2 was out.
I think I talk about the guy who has Big Rig too much, but when I look at riders, the biggest factor is their career riding %. By that measure, JB is almost twice as good as some of the other guys at any event, and it's rare for him to be a complete non-factor in a round. In round 1 he would have been, but there just weren't a lot of matchups that looked like they would be a lot of points, and that kind of opens things up.
I also try to cover bulls that aren't seen that often if they are worth mentioning, or some that have interesting numbers - Like Marchi's round 2 bull - 0% buckoff. It's not always just the top 5-10 matchups, although I do try to focus on them. -
reznibd
March 14, 2010KRC - Well, you got me to laugh out loud!
(In reference to Hupp being a "flash in the pan")
I said: "They are all pretty incredible to be where they are--just ask Kasey Hayes, Brendan Clark, Pistol Robinson, Luke Snyder, etc."
I meant that the top forty are incredible to be where they are, just ask those "cut" guys!
Even so, I still think the "cut" guys are pretty doggone incredible too :) -
Keith Ryan Cartwright
March 14, 2010WebPBR,
"I just believe there were better match ups to discuss..." J.B. is the number one rider in the world standings so, yeah, I suspect a few people wonder what chance he has of making the whistle and protecting his lead, especially since he lost it twice before.
World Cup or Glendale??,
Most remotes do come with a volume button.
reznibd,
You did you just reference Pistol Robinson and Kasey Hayes in the same sentence as "incredible?" -
World Cup or Glendale:
March 14, 2010KRC- Thanks for the info that TV's do come with a remote-- I tuned in to watch the PBR, no word on the riders in that section, Shane Protor, Ned Cross, etc.-- just a bunch of blabbering on the World Cup and Moraes choices. Save it for the breaks, RFD-TV,or Leah's interviews. To hear the commentators at work during the first half of this event-- they could have done the same thing from their hotel rooms with all the attention they were paying to the event. -
justme
March 14, 2010Webpbr I never questioned Slade on anything you did you seem to feel you know better than him what should be on the morning line. Pretty arrogant if you ask me seeing as how
Slade Long, PBR Web Developer and Statistician, has been crunching the numbers on bucking bulls for 11 years.)
Have a wonderful evening everyone :) -
donna
March 14, 2010What a great event. It was a fun time being there and the matchups worked well. Hope everyone had a good time! -
donna
March 14, 2010What a great event. It was a fun time being there and the matchups worked well. Hope everyone had a good time! -
Keith Ryan Cartwright
March 14, 2010WebPBR,
"I just believe there were better match ups to discuss..." J.B. is the number one rider in the world standings so, yeah, I suspect a few people wonder what chance he has of making the whistle and protecting his lead, especially since he lost it twice before.
World Cup or Glendale??,
Most remotes do come with a volume button.
reznibd,
You did you just reference Pistol Robinson and Kasey Hayes in the same sentence as "incredible?" -
martin
March 14, 2010Webpbr like justme said if what your saying is the way it should be then none of the first three bulls listed should have been on the morning line, yet you only have comments about JB.
Keep wishin 21.11/10 42.225
Fast Freddy 21.21/3 42.417
Curve Ball 21.42/10 42.833 -
reznibd
March 14, 2010No, I don't think Jordan is a "flash in the pan." The odds are against these guys covering their bulls so much of the time. I mean, they have to have their head game in gear, their bodies in gear and they have to draw and draft just right for the stars to align, you know? They are all pretty incredible to be where they are--just ask Kasey Hayes, Brendan Clark, Pistol Robinson, Luke Snyder, etc. -
stormcloud
March 14, 2010O.K. folks, I'm not trying to start a war, nor am I being derrogatory, but I'm sort of
wondering if Hupp was just a flash in the pan. -
World Cup or Glendale??
March 14, 2010We just missed a complete section of the PBR at Glendale listening to Hummer, McKee, McBride, and Moraes ramble on about the World Cup. This is after listening to Hummer, McKee, and McBride monopolize the section before with meaningless comments.
This is the Glendale PBR-- commentators should be talking about the riders at Glendale. We would have been better off to turn off the sound-- we would have missed no information on the riders-- as they didn't give any. -
reznibd
March 14, 2010Thank you, again, webpbr.
Speaking for myself, I don't get as upset with the questions or the whys as much as I do the
emphatic statements.
Oh, and I suspect that you'll be able to hold your thoughts about as well I as am able to hold
mine--not! :) -
webpbr
March 14, 2010By the way, sorry for my comments about Slade and JB. I still disagree that JB should have been in the Morning Line, because I don't think that even if he rode him, it was going to make much of a splash in the score. Which it did not. I just believe there were better match ups to discuss and and don't understand why those were not covered and JB's was. With that said, I will try and hold my thoughts and let someone else catch heat for bringing up questions of WHY. -
webpbr
March 14, 2010pbrvegas77 - I agree, good to see LJ finally get a win. I talked to his dad while in St. Louis and he knew LJ was going to pick him then, I am sure he knew he was going to pick him in Glendale as well.
Joan - I was going to agree with you about LJ riding Voodoo Child and his mother being there, but since I am a slow learner, I am not sure if I should agree or just argue. i will have to get back with you on that after I study it more. :)
Jason - Have I ever questioned JB's ability to ride a bull? Don't think so. But thanks for pointing it out, I would have not known that if you would not have told me.
Rez - Good points. I would like to hear from Slade himself on what the Morning Line is and what he wants it to accomplish. I think it would enlighten all of us to know, instead of all of us guessing or trying to figure out and give our opinions of what he is writing and why. By the way, is anyone above having their view or their opinion questioned, including you and I? Isn't that what makes for great debates and better understanding, or are we suppose to read, watch and observe and then just believe everything?
-
stormcloud
March 14, 2010I'm also happy for L.J. Did you see his Mom last night?
She had her hands over her eyes, then asked someone sitting
next to her what happened. It was funny. -
Joan Simpson
March 14, 2010rez, I couldn't have said it any better. Why would anyone want to argue and even say anything about what Slade is saying? He is just telling it like it is. He certainly knows the bulls and the rides.
He is surmising what, if we lived in a perfect world, he thinks will happen. -
reznibd
March 14, 2010Well, allow me to chime in on this, if you will. As you can see from the above, no, Slade does not include only those whom stand to win or have a good chance to do so. In fact, in both articles he references those whom just might come up short, which is what I saw when I read about JB on Keep Wishin. I thought Slade was saying that JB would probably ride him, even though most don't, but that he'd come up short of a round win.
Now, in this Round 2 article, he references many whom he believes will come up short on their bulls like Austin on Hank, Kody on Real Moody and others for various reasons.
Gee whiz. To me, "The Morning Line" is to hear an expert statistician give us his opinion about the match ups both good and bad and everything in between. -
pbrvegas77
March 14, 2010ABOUT TIME, L.J. wins an event,..Congrats to LJ Jenkins,.. -
Joan Simpson
March 14, 2010jason_c_adam, webpbr is a slow learner. -
Joan Simpson
March 14, 2010How great can it get? LJ Jenkins rode Voodoo Child.
I am so glad for him. Thank Goodness his mother was there to see and hear the roar of the crowd. -
jason_c_adam
March 14, 2010Webpbr:
You don't like JB, we get it. Give it a rest.
You may want to find something else to do for the next 5-10 years, cause I have a feeling there might be some attention paid to Mr. Mauney in the coming years. He is a pretty darn good bullrider if you haven't noticed. -
webpbr
March 14, 2010justme - I am glad you can speak for Slade. Maybe he can hire you to write for him as well. Usually the definiton of "the morning line" is the odds of that "horse" WINNING. In this case it would be the odds of the rider riding the bull and then what chances he has in winning the round or placing high. If it were just the odds of the rider riding, then you would list all of the bulls and the riders. Since there are only 5-10 rider/bull match ups listed each time, you would think that the ones listed are not just "interesting" match ups, but ones that have the potential to produce high scores. If you look at most of Slade's picks, they are picks that he thinks will give the rider the chance to win or place high, which is what makes his pick of JB on Keep Wishin curious. -
justme
March 14, 2010It's the matchups Slade wants to talk about.Not much difference in the first three according to Probull stats. Maybe next week Slade will call you and ask you which ones he should talk about.
Probull stats PBR events
Keep wishin 21.11/10 42.225
Fast Freddy 21.21/3 42.417
Curve Ball 21.42/10 42.833
Life Sentence 21.63 / 14 43.250
Hypnotized 21.72 / 4 43.438
Marmaduke 21.56 / 6 43.125
Bad Yeller 22.01 / 41 44.024
Soulja Boy 22.38 / 25 44.760
-
webpbr
March 14, 2010Ok justme, what is the morning line for? -
justme
March 14, 2010webpbr - Just wondering where you found the definitions of the Morning Line -
louisiana fan
March 14, 2010Ahhhh, thanks webpbr, I thought perhaps there was something wrong. -
webpbr
March 14, 2010louisiana fan - Most of Arizona does not change their clocks for day light savings time. So, you are in Central Time and they are now the same as Pacific Time. It is now 4:10 here and 2:10 there. -
louisiana fan
March 14, 2010why are the scores not appearing at the live event center I thought the event started at 2:00
and I'm and hour behind Arizona so at 4:00 o'clock ny time it should be on, does anyone know? -
webpbr
March 14, 2010justme - Why was this bull and JB on the morning line? Everything being equal, if JB rode him, he was going to get an 84-85 score. I thought that the morning line is good match ups that could be good scores and either win rounds or finish in the top. -
justme
March 14, 2010Webpbr - Below you will find what was written in the mornig line , I would say the only hype on here is you because this is a far cry from what you stated that it said. It doesn't matter what the writers say or do if they put JB name in and article and someone has something nice to say then here comes the hype.
J.B. Mauney on -422 Keep Wishin’:
This is a bull who bucks off 90 percent of the guys who have tried him. He hasn’t faced riders of Mauney’s caliber very often, but he’s only been ridden twice, and the best score on him in the past two years was 85.25 points.
you.
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March 15, 2010